Kuril Islands Tsunami

Sorry for my recent hiatus. I've been taking emergency preparedness classes after hours that have drastically reduced my available hours to post recently. More on that at the end of the month. This morning I'm returning because it's not every day we get a Tsunami Warning issued. Right now it appears that it was a wise precaution to issue Tsunami Watches and Warnings for most of the northern Pacific after this magnitude 8.3 earthquake. The epicenter was in a very remote area, and there has been no reported damage due to the quake, but an earthquake of this magnitude along a subduction fault is likely to generate some form of tsunami. So far, though, the highest tsunami wave observed from this quake has been 30 centimeters, or about a foot, at Hanasaki, Japan on the island of Hokkaido. As a result, the watches and warnings have been cancelled for Alaska, British Columbia, Washington, Oregon and California. However, a Tsunami Warning is still up for the Russian Pacific coast, Japan, and many northern Pacific islands. Watches still extend to most of the open Pacific, as well as Indonesia and Vietnam. It is likely this too will be dropped soon, unless reports can confirm there was a larger tsunami elsewhere.

Strong Hawaiian Quake

Sorry about the long absence, but I haven't had much time to post recently. More about that later. Right now, I just thought I'd note the rather impressive earthquake sequence that has started in the last hour in Hawaii. I'll add an update when I know more about the nature of this.

UPDATE: The initially reported magnitudes of 4.6 and 4.9 for the two largest events in this sequence were way too low. They have now been revised to 6.3 and 5.8. It's typical for magnitudes to be revised early on as new information comes in. With that information, this looks like a typical aftershock sequence from a strong shallow quake. The estimated intensity from seismometer data is MMI VI along most of the Kona Coast, with MMI VII near the epicenter. This is enough to cause moderate damage, with the potential for widespread damage near the epicenter. Further updates when any reports of damage or other effects are in.

UPDATE 2: There are reports of landslides blocking Highway 19 along the Kona Coast, and some buildings near the epicenter appear to have sustained structural damage. Power outages are widespread across the Hawaiian islands, including Oahu, so reports are not coming in quickly.

UPDATE 3: The magnitude of the mainshock has been upgraded to 6.6. Mercalli Intensities of VII and VIII have been reported across the entire northern half of the Big Island. No fatalities have yet been reported, but there is extensive infrastructure damage, with many collapsed buildings being reported, and hospitals on the Big Island are reporting numerous minor injuries. Kona Community Hospital was heavily damaged and has been evacuated. Numerous aftershocks are continuing, and affecting the islands of Maui and Lanai as well. The magnitude 5.8 aftershock seven minutes after the quake was likely the largest of the sequence, although there is still a significant risk of further aftershocks of around magnitude 5. A disaster area encompassing the entire state of Hawaii has been declared.

Gordon targets Azores, Spain, France

Gordon has managed to maintain strength and even strengthen a bit while accelerating, even in the face of shear, much like Wilma's "dive-bombing" run at Florida last year. Gordon is now a threat to the Azores primarily, but is moving quickly, and won't lose much power before slamming into northwestern Spain as a powerful mid-latitude cyclone. Western France will take a hit soon after that. These storms can be quite intense, even when not tropical in nature.

Helene is now the strongest storm of this Atlantic season, both currently with 115 mph winds and at her former peak of 125 mph winds. Helene is still staying way out to sea and not bothering anyone, though who knows, she may pull a Gordon in her old age...

Gordon and Helene still out to sea / Lane and Miriam pounding Mexico

Hurricane Lane made landfall in Sinaloa as a major Category 3 hurricane, slamming the state with 125 mph winds. Already there are two reported deaths, although the worst hit area is very lightly populated. Lane is losing strength and spinning down over land right now, but is still a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. The storm which had been moving north-northeast prior to landfall is now being pushed back to the west as the low-level center is having a hard time climbing the western slopes of the Sierra Madre Occidental. This is fairly typical for hurricanes encountering mountains taller than 5,000 feet or so.

The new threat to Mexico is Tropical Storm Miriam, although this storm isn't much of a threat. Due to interference from Lane, she won't ever get very strong. The "best path" also keeps Miriam offshore, although there's a reasonable chance she'll make landfall somewhere along Baja California. When she does, she'll be a minimal tropical storm, or even a tropical depression. This will just bring a lot more rain to the peninsula.

Gordon is now barely a hurricane, but Helene has now become the Atlantic's fourth of the year, and is still intensifying. The 5-day track of Helene still brings her nowhere near land. As we move into late September and October, we tend to be past the time of year when these storms forming far out to sea like Gordon and Helene can threaten North America. If the U.S. is going to see a hurricane landfall this year, it will come from the Western Carribbean or the Gulf of Mexico, most likely. There's still a ton of heat potential there to make for a devastating storm if atmospheric conditions are right, so the Gulf Coast can't relax yet. On the other hand, things are looking up for the eastern seaboard. While an old cold front moving out to sea could still spawn some Ophelia-like storms there before the season ends, they would likely be no stronger than a weak Category 2 at landfall.

Gordon strongest of 2006, still no threat

Gordon peaked today as a Category 3 hurricane, with 120 mph winds. He remains a major hurricane with a spectacular eye, but is now going to gradually weaken as he drifts northward across cooler seas. Gordon is so far the only major hurricane in the Atlantic this year.

Tropical Storm Helene is still gathering strength and organizing a tighter circulation, but remains absolutely no threat to land within the next 5 days at least. Even after that, if you look at where the storms like her have gone in the past, the climatology says that the overwhelming odds are for her to stay out to sea.

While the Atlantic is getting a break, Baja California is becoming this year's hurricane magnet. Tropical Storm Lane is heading pretty much right down the path of Hurricane John, and is expected to arrive around Los Cabos as a Category 2 storm. That would be not quite as powerful as John was, but a second hurricane hitting the same area often can compound the damage of the first, even when it is weaker. Lane is also huge. Note that he's trying to draw some energy all the way from the Gulf of Mexico. Lane also has an outside shot at shooting up the Gulf of California towards the U.S., but most models have him eventually recurving into Sonora. The UKMET model has an interesting solution. It stalls Lane out just off of the tip of Baja, and he falls apart at sea there. You can also see another Eastern Pacific storm predicted there, and one Central Pacific as well. All this is consistent with the recent unseasonable onset of El Niño. During El Niño conditions, you generally get an active Eastern Pacific (like, oh, say being up to the L storm just over halfway through the season), and an active Central Pacific (like, oh, say a massive superstorm like Ioke), while the Atlantic storms fizzle out due to shear.

Lots of storms but little danger on land

Florence passed just west of Bermuda, but still brought 80 mph winds to the island. (How could she miss?) She's now an intense extratropical storm bringing high winds and plenty of rain to Newfoundland.

The next storms are already lining up in the Atlantic, which has suddenly become very busy, but most of these storms are forming well to the east, and without the strong Bermuda High that we had last year, these storms will all turn north well east of North America. We already have Hurricane Gordon going to pass Bermuda well to the east. (A lot smaller than Florence, isn't he?) Then just past the Cape Verde Islands, we have TD 8, which will probably be Tropical Storm Helene by tonight or tomorrow, but which you can see is already getting ready to turn north, and will end up being further out to sea than either Florence or Gordon.

The only current threat to land anywhere in the world is from Typhoon Shanshan which will threaten the Ryukyu Islands, and possibly Taiwan.

Florida gets ready for... Earthquake season??

A remarkably large earthquake has just occurred off the coast of Florida. The 6.0 magnitude indicates that this was a serious earthquake, but located far offshore. Nonetheless, it was powerful enough to be felt fairly strongly in several states, including Florida, Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Texas.

This area is not known for earthquakes. There have only been seven small earthquakes none as large as M4.0. This is the strongest felt earthquake in Florida in 120 years. There was a magnitude 5.2 earthquake back in February, a bit closer to Louisiana, and this might be related. Still, the faults in this region aren't well known, and this is a very rare occurrence.