Gordon targets Azores, Spain, France

Gordon has managed to maintain strength and even strengthen a bit while accelerating, even in the face of shear, much like Wilma's "dive-bombing" run at Florida last year. Gordon is now a threat to the Azores primarily, but is moving quickly, and won't lose much power before slamming into northwestern Spain as a powerful mid-latitude cyclone. Western France will take a hit soon after that. These storms can be quite intense, even when not tropical in nature.

Helene is now the strongest storm of this Atlantic season, both currently with 115 mph winds and at her former peak of 125 mph winds. Helene is still staying way out to sea and not bothering anyone, though who knows, she may pull a Gordon in her old age...

Gordon and Helene still out to sea / Lane and Miriam pounding Mexico

Hurricane Lane made landfall in Sinaloa as a major Category 3 hurricane, slamming the state with 125 mph winds. Already there are two reported deaths, although the worst hit area is very lightly populated. Lane is losing strength and spinning down over land right now, but is still a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. The storm which had been moving north-northeast prior to landfall is now being pushed back to the west as the low-level center is having a hard time climbing the western slopes of the Sierra Madre Occidental. This is fairly typical for hurricanes encountering mountains taller than 5,000 feet or so.

The new threat to Mexico is Tropical Storm Miriam, although this storm isn't much of a threat. Due to interference from Lane, she won't ever get very strong. The "best path" also keeps Miriam offshore, although there's a reasonable chance she'll make landfall somewhere along Baja California. When she does, she'll be a minimal tropical storm, or even a tropical depression. This will just bring a lot more rain to the peninsula.

Gordon is now barely a hurricane, but Helene has now become the Atlantic's fourth of the year, and is still intensifying. The 5-day track of Helene still brings her nowhere near land. As we move into late September and October, we tend to be past the time of year when these storms forming far out to sea like Gordon and Helene can threaten North America. If the U.S. is going to see a hurricane landfall this year, it will come from the Western Carribbean or the Gulf of Mexico, most likely. There's still a ton of heat potential there to make for a devastating storm if atmospheric conditions are right, so the Gulf Coast can't relax yet. On the other hand, things are looking up for the eastern seaboard. While an old cold front moving out to sea could still spawn some Ophelia-like storms there before the season ends, they would likely be no stronger than a weak Category 2 at landfall.

Gordon strongest of 2006, still no threat

Gordon peaked today as a Category 3 hurricane, with 120 mph winds. He remains a major hurricane with a spectacular eye, but is now going to gradually weaken as he drifts northward across cooler seas. Gordon is so far the only major hurricane in the Atlantic this year.

Tropical Storm Helene is still gathering strength and organizing a tighter circulation, but remains absolutely no threat to land within the next 5 days at least. Even after that, if you look at where the storms like her have gone in the past, the climatology says that the overwhelming odds are for her to stay out to sea.

While the Atlantic is getting a break, Baja California is becoming this year's hurricane magnet. Tropical Storm Lane is heading pretty much right down the path of Hurricane John, and is expected to arrive around Los Cabos as a Category 2 storm. That would be not quite as powerful as John was, but a second hurricane hitting the same area often can compound the damage of the first, even when it is weaker. Lane is also huge. Note that he's trying to draw some energy all the way from the Gulf of Mexico. Lane also has an outside shot at shooting up the Gulf of California towards the U.S., but most models have him eventually recurving into Sonora. The UKMET model has an interesting solution. It stalls Lane out just off of the tip of Baja, and he falls apart at sea there. You can also see another Eastern Pacific storm predicted there, and one Central Pacific as well. All this is consistent with the recent unseasonable onset of El Niño. During El Niño conditions, you generally get an active Eastern Pacific (like, oh, say being up to the L storm just over halfway through the season), and an active Central Pacific (like, oh, say a massive superstorm like Ioke), while the Atlantic storms fizzle out due to shear.

Lots of storms but little danger on land

Florence passed just west of Bermuda, but still brought 80 mph winds to the island. (How could she miss?) She's now an intense extratropical storm bringing high winds and plenty of rain to Newfoundland.

The next storms are already lining up in the Atlantic, which has suddenly become very busy, but most of these storms are forming well to the east, and without the strong Bermuda High that we had last year, these storms will all turn north well east of North America. We already have Hurricane Gordon going to pass Bermuda well to the east. (A lot smaller than Florence, isn't he?) Then just past the Cape Verde Islands, we have TD 8, which will probably be Tropical Storm Helene by tonight or tomorrow, but which you can see is already getting ready to turn north, and will end up being further out to sea than either Florence or Gordon.

The only current threat to land anywhere in the world is from Typhoon Shanshan which will threaten the Ryukyu Islands, and possibly Taiwan.

Florida gets ready for... Earthquake season??

A remarkably large earthquake has just occurred off the coast of Florida. The 6.0 magnitude indicates that this was a serious earthquake, but located far offshore. Nonetheless, it was powerful enough to be felt fairly strongly in several states, including Florida, Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Texas.

This area is not known for earthquakes. There have only been seven small earthquakes none as large as M4.0. This is the strongest felt earthquake in Florida in 120 years. There was a magnitude 5.2 earthquake back in February, a bit closer to Louisiana, and this might be related. Still, the faults in this region aren't well known, and this is a very rare occurrence.

Florence Finally a Hurricane

Florence has finally tightened up her structure and strengthened into a hurricane. She's down a bit from her maximum size, but is still a very large storm at about 520 miles across. Bermuda will almost certainly take a direct hit from her, and Newfoundland will probably get a visit from Florence in extratropical form, but still with strong hurricane-force winds.

Florence is Huge

Florence is huge. Not just big like Katrina was big, but absolutely freakin' gigantic. At 900+ nautical miles in diameter Florence is starting to enter Typhoon Tip territory. Except for the incredible size, Florence is an unremarkable storm. With only 50 mph winds, and a mostly incoherent circulation, Florence would be your typical weak tropical disturbance, except she's about 100 times bigger than normal. The wind pattern on Florence looks almost like a strong extratropical Nor'easter, but she's not. Florence has 100% tropical warm-core lineage. While 2005 set all kinds of records for improbably strong storms, 2006 looks to be setting no records other than for plain weirdness. What's in Florence's future? Probably not a spectacular landfall. So far the only area to be immediately threatened is Bermuda. Florence will probably eventually reach hurricane strength, but turn northward long before reaching the Atlantic coast of North America. Bermuda should probably be preparing for Florence right now. Remember, even if the thin black line eventually ends up missing the island by 250 miles, this storm is 900 freakin' miles wide. Bermuda will feel the effects of this storm. After the pass by Bermuda, Florence will become a more typical huge and powerful extratropical storm. The Canadian Maritime Provinces need to keep an eye out for what could be a very impressive Nor'easter from Florence's remnants.

Kristy Hangs On / Florence Forms

John couldn't make it back over water in time, and Ioke finally ran out of ocean and got sucked northward by a cold front, so only Kristy is left in the Pacific. Kristy is a tenacious little storm for such a small one. She's been downgraded twice to a tropical depression, but bounced back each time. She's still hanging on as a tropical storm, and is even expected to be able to strengthen a little bit more in the next few days.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, we now have Tropical Storm Florence. She's projected to be a hurricane in about 3 or 4 days, but as of right now isn't a threat to any land. She's most likely going to shoot the gap between North America and Bermuda. For now, she's just spinning fish.

John can't clear Baja

John never made it cleanly back to water, either in the Gulf of California, or the Pacific, and so has been slowly spinning down over the Baja peninsula. The interaction with land has taken his maximum winds down from 110 mph to 45 mph. This has greatly lessened his chances of making it to the U.S., although, note that the forecast cone still includes San Diego. With the right combination of influences, there is still a shot John could hit the U.S. as a tropical depression.

Typhoon Ioke is also still spinning down, and is down to a Category 2 storm now with 110 mph sustained winds. The forecast now has Ioke recurving before reaching Japan, and in the long run, entering the Aleutian Islands as an extratropical remnant.

John Makes Landfall / Ernesto Post-Mortem

John has made landfall in Baja California and seems to be continuing northward across its southern tip, and then at least briefly back over water in the Gulf of California. Most models have John sticking very near the coast as he moves northward, and this will determine how long he can keep his intensity up. The circulation of the storm will be very easily disrupted by the hilly Baja terrain if he strays too far west. He's still got a long way to go, but depending on the exact track, he could still be a named tropical cyclone on reaching the U.S.

Ernesto rapidly weakened to a tropical depression over North Carolina, and has now stalled out in Virginia. He is receiving a shot of baroclinic energy while interacting with a front. This has actually pushed his maximum wind speeds back up to 40 mph, but because he's no longer being driven by a warm tropical core, he's an extratropical storm (or mid-latitude cyclone) at this point. He's still dumping tons of rain over Virginia and Maryland especially.

Tropical Storm Kristy is rapidly becoming nothing to speak of. She's stalled out and is quickly falling apart due to shear from John's outflow.

Plain Old Typhoon Ioke is still pretty impressive as storms go, with 130 mph sustained winds, but quite a bit down from her peak. Dr. Jeff Masters points to this site with lots of data on Ioke's glory days as a super typhoon. Ioke has finally fallen back to Category 3 after spending 7.75 days as a Category 4 or 5 storm. No word yet on if that is a record. Ioke's current track is apparently calling for a landfall somewhere on Honshu in about 6 or 7 days.