Ernesto about to make an appearance

The tropical disturbance I mentioned earlier near the Lesser Antilles underwent some major changes today. The circulation center approached the Venezuelan coast too closely, and had its moisture and convection inputs cut off along the southern side. This caused the incipient depression to reorganized further north around a new center. Shortly after this occurred, NHC hurricane hunter aircraft found that it had established a new closed circulation and become Tropical Depression 5. There are still a few unfavorable obstacles that this system will have to avoid, but I'm pretty sure we're soon to see Tropical Storm Ernesto here. Right now there is a fair amount of Saharan dust in the path of this depression, which should at least temporarily inhibit the system from strengthening. Shear could also be a problem, but I tend to believe the GFS and GFDL models are correct in moving the upper level low westward out of the way of an intensifying Ernesto. For right now, this system appears to be ready to become Tropical Storm Ernesto, and then threaten Jamaica and the Cayman Islands as Hurricane Ernesto. Assuming it avoids the larger islands after that, it's got a very favorable Gulf of Mexico in front of it in terms of sea temperatures and shear. This could be a big one. The Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle through Texas should be watching the future of this storm.

OTHER TROPICS: Debby is still out there, but not much of a concern to anyone. She's staying out to sea, and is no longer predicted to even make hurricane strength. Ileana is fading rapidly as expected as she reaches much cooler waters. Ioke suddenly intensified to Category 4 today, and is looking very impressive over the open waters of the Pacific. Within 72 hours, Ioke should cross the International Date Line, still humming along at around this intensity, and thus become a typhoon.