Tropics heat up quickly

Some pretty rapid changes occurred today in both the Pacific and the Atlantic. While Hector is back to a 40 MPH tropical storm, and fading quickly, three new storms have popped up. The most notable is Hurricane Ioke which has in 48 hours gone from a just-forming tropical depression to an impressive Category 4 hurricane. See what happens when I take a little break? Ioke is staying well to the southwest of the main Hawaiian Islands, but could pose a threat to the sparsely populated islands and atolls that make up the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. The U.S. territory of Johnston Atoll lies directly in the path of Ioke, and will take a vicious hit tomorrow. Johnston Atoll has been uninhabited for over two years now, and is now officially a wildlife refuge. Many of the last remaining traces of the former human habitation will doubtlessly be destroyed by this storm, returning the island to an even more wild state.

The newest member of the Pacific Storm family is Tropical Storm Ileana. Ileana should stay well offshore, but may set out to prove me wrong again by attaining only Category 2 before slowly fading out west of Baja California Sur.

The latest in a series of impressive tropical waves coming off of Africa has organized enough to become Tropical Depression Four. Strengthening is anticipated, and this should be Tropical Storm Debby by tomorrow. This is actually good news. Storms that get named (i.e. sustain 39 mph or stronger winds) before crossing west of 40 degrees west longitude rarely make landfall in North America. Debby should get named somewhere around 25 degrees west. While Debby will likely become the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year, she's likely to slip northward into a weakness in the Bermuda High, and move into a latitude where the prevailing winds will recurve her back eastward without approaching any land. It takes a strong and persistant ridge of high pressure to keep a storm that forms this far east from turning north before reaching the Lesser Antilles.