Sunday, August 06, 2006

Tropical Triplets Threaten Asia / Long-Range Cape Verde Watch

Hot on the heels of Typhoon Prapiroon three more cyclones are clustered just offshore, and each look to make landfall in quick succession over the next few days. The first will be Tropical Storm Maria which will come ashore late Tuesday and track over Osaka. Maria should remain just below typhoon strength. Then China will receive a double punch in a very short time span. First Bopha should arrive at or just below typhoon strength on Wednesday, then the much more powerful Typhoon Saomai will come in just north of Bopha's track on Thursday. All three storms bear watching.

Finally, the Cape Verde disturbance that we have been following should become Debby soon. QuickSCAT readings show that the winds have already formed a closed circulation, and as this disturbance continues to organize and consolidate, there seems to be little in the way of shear or dry air to stop it. Water temperatures ahead along the projected path are already very warm, as could be expected in early August. The only thing that could significantly interfere with this disturbance becoming a depression and then a tropical storm would be if it were to dip south of 10 degrees latitude and start getting interference from the South American landmass. So far none of the models say it will.

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