Early stages of Ernesto

Ernesto was having some problems with shear today, with the low level center becoming almost completely exposed at times, but what convection is there is looking pretty darn good now. Ernesto's still got a challenge over the weekend to survive what should be the strongest shear he'll encounter. After that, the models are predicting low shear the rest of the way across the Western Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC projected path mostly keeps Ernesto south of Cuba if he survives. Note that the 5 day cone now extends as far as Louisiana, so people in that area should be watching the situation carefully. A lot can change quickly early in the development of tropical cyclones so it's too soon to say that anywhere except the southern coast of Haiti (where they have put up a Tropical Storm Warning) and probably Jamaica (where the island is under a Tropical Storm Watch) will be affected by this storm. But the most recent run of the GFDL model makes Ernesto into a Category 3 hurricane just about to hit Louisiana by next Wednesday evening. This is only one potential scenario based on one run of one model, and not a forecast, but it's something to keep in mind as one realistic possible future for Ernesto.