Hurricane Highway

While the wind shear is keeping a lid any potential tropical storm for now in the Atlantic, the water is starting to get warm out there. Warm water, of course, fuels the intensity of hurricanes after they form. Right now, most of the Atlantic is running about 0.5 to 2.0 degrees C above the climatological average. The sea surface temperature map shows an interesting formation in the Gulf of Mexico right now. This line of warm water is due to the Loop Current, which is a semi-stable meander of the Gulf Stream that wobbles back and forth south of Louisiana. Both Katrina and Rita crossed more or less perpendicularly across this current and rapidly intensified by several categories when they did, but then lost a little strength once they crossed it. Hurricane Camille was a different story. It followed a track that more or less lines up with what you see in the SST map above. It's theorized that Camille did indeed happen to track right above the Loop Current and thus keep intensifying right up until the point where she slammed into Mississippi with 190 mph winds. Of course, it's impossible to tell what the atmospheric conditions will be like several months from now, but this is an area to watch. If a storm manages to get into this region in late summer while wind shear and humidity are favorable, we'll likely see yet another Category 5 Gulf storm. A lot of factors have to come together for that to happen, but last season showed that you can't count on the worst case scenario not to happen.