Ernesto's track trending eastward

Each consecutive forecast pushes Ernesto's track further east. It now looks like most of the Gulf Coast is in the clear for this storm. Florida and the Bahamas still need to keep preparations progressing. In fact a non-resident evacuation is in progress in the Florida Keys. Ernesto's track into Haiti has knocked him down from a minimal Category 1 hurricane to a 50 mph tropical storm. The same areas where 3,000 people died in floods and landslides triggered by Tropical Storm Jeanne in 2004 are receiving up to 20 inches of rain today. One death has been confirmed in Haiti, but it would be miraculous if that number doesn't increase greatly.

If Ernesto stays over Cuba long enough, there might not be anything left to hit Florida. The NHC is being cautious and assuming that Ernesto will still pop off the coast of Cuba as a tropical storm. That would give him enough time to rebuild to hurricane strength before hitting Florida, but the new track misses most of the incredibly hot waters that could drive explosive intensification.

IOKE UPDATE: Super Typhoon Ioke has weakened to a Category 4 storm, just below Category 5 intensity, so no Category 5 record right now. The forecast still keeps Ioke at Category 4 or 5 throughout the week, so the Category 4/5 record could still be broken.