Chris gets shoved back south

The GFDL's unlikely looking idea of Chris being forced more southward has begun to look more realistic now, vindicating the utility of the model once again. The reason for this is related to the record and near-record heat and humidity affecting the eastern U.S. right now. The sea level pressure as forecast by the GFS model shows the strong Bermuda High keeping Chris from moving north. As the Northeast heats up, the air is thermally induced to become less dense, and the Bermuda High spreads westward to fill in. This forms an elongated ridge of high pressure to the north of Chris's track, forcing the storm almost due west.

The overall result is that Chris is forced into a less favorable zone for intensification, and thus is less likely to become a hurricane...for now. The latest track also takes Chris across Cuba, which is an easier passage for a storm than over Hispaniola. If the storm ends up going over Cuba with the circulation remaining intact, it could find a much more favorable zone for reintensification in the Gulf of Mexico. Chris may be with us a while still.

P.S. Note that if you went forward to the last frame of the GFS model, you may have noticed the concentric green circles just west of Africa. That's a potential Cape Verde disturbance that the models have been consistently predicting for a while. Cape Verde hurricanes tend to be nature's version of the punch Popeye throws to end a cartoon: there's a ridiculously long windup of the arm windmilling around faster and faster, which finally culminates in the devastating uppercut that sends Bluto over the horizon. That area will have to be watched, starting in about 5 or 6 days. If a potential Debby forms there, she could also be making headlines for a long time.