Chris tries to regain balance

Chris is again trying to get in place in the "sweet spot" between the upper level lows to either side where shear is the lowest. It looks like he's starting to find it again, with convection again blowing up and re-enveloping the core of the storm. The winds tend to lag behind the convection, so Chris is still a minimal 40 mph tropical storm at this hour. Depending on his exact track, Chris has some potential to make a comeback, or just as quickly fall apart completely. The storm is about to enter the Turks & Caicos Islands, and should then cross the southern Bahamas, and both areas are now under tropical storm warnings. The best track still looks to be just a bit to the north of due west, and up along the northern side of Cuba. This is where a few miles difference in the track will make a huge difference in Chris's future. If Chris ends up spending a long time over Cuba, the storm will probably dissipate, or emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a weak depression. But if Chris simply skirts the coast, he could possibly maintain up to 50 mph winds. Once in the Gulf, the conditions are looking pretty good for Chris to intensify, if he's still around 4 or 5 days from now. How much intensification there will be will depend on the initial conditions. If he's gone far over Cuba and comes across as a disorganized 25 mph depression, there might be only enough time to regain minimal tropical storm strength. If he enters the gulf as a fairly good looking tropical storm, then he still has a chance of making landfall as a hurricane. Texas and Louisiana definitely need to watch Chris's visit to Cuba carefully.

BONUS DEBBY WATCH: The GFS and Canadian models are still indicating potential for a Cape Verde storm to develop 3-5 days out. Stay tuned.