Chris Survives Improbably

Somehow Tropical Storm Chris managed to find a narrow safe path across the mostly forbidding environment for tropical storms that currently exists near the Leeward Islands. Chris is in the lower right and right now it looks like he's going to follow a high pressure ridge right along the outer rim of the Caribbean islands. Chris is just skimming Barbuda right now, and producing some gusty winds. Right now, Chris seems like a good prospect to become the first Atlantic hurricane of 2006, but there are still several pitfalls that could disrupt the storm. If Chris starts drifting more south as the GFDL model predicts, the storm will go pretty much right over Pico Duarte in the Dominican Republic. Tropical storms don't tend to survive when trying to cross 10,000-foot mountain ranges. On the other hand, if Chris manages to drift more northward to follow an upper level low there, the shear will be a lot stronger, and he'll remain a tropical storm, without having the opportunity to strengthen to a hurricane. Finally, there's always the "just right" scenario, which is close to the NHC's best track prediction. In this case, Chris would enter the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane. Once in there, there's a lot of warm water available, but it's too early to get a reliable reading of what the surrounding conditions will look like, or what track Chris would follow more than a week out, but none of the possibilities look particularly good for the Gulf Coast. As it stands, Florida south of I-4, the Bahamas, and Cuba should be preparing for Chris's potential arrival.