TD 1

The first tropical cyclone of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season just formed about 50 minutes ago. Tropical Depression 1 is just off of the western tip of Cuba right now, and heading into the Gulf of Mexico. Its current 35 mph winds should strengthen enough later today for this storm to become Tropical Storm Alberto. It is currently projected to make landfall at Cedar Key, Florida as a tropical storm around midnight Tuesday morning. This projection is based off the GFS and GFDL computer models. Other models with a slightly lesser track record show the storm stalling in the Gulf or heading for Texas. These are considered to be still possible, but less likely. Some models have Alberto briefly becoming a hurricane before racing up the East Coast as an extratropical storm, but the NHC is conservatively keeping it a tropical storm throughout. This is probably wise, as a lot can change as a storm evolves over 5 days.