Atlantic 2006, the anti-2005?

It seemed like last year, whenever there was doubt as to whether a tropical system would intensify or fizzle, you could take the sure bet that it would intensify, sometimes beyond belief. This year, the opposite seems to be true. Alberto just missed being a hurricane, and Chris and Ernesto both had realistic possibilities of becoming extremely powerful storms, but none of the chances played out. Wind shear did in Chris, and Ernesto detoured over land masses. It appears the run of bad luck that the U.S. had 2005 (and 2004) may be over. Does this mean that the active year last year was an anomaly? To some extent it was. You won't get a record-shattering year every year. On the other hand, 2006 may still be lulling us. September and October can still be very active, and there will still be probably at least seven more storms out there this year. Any one of those that makes it into the Gulf could still cause havoc. But it's good to see a little break of at least a few months, after the relentless barrage of 2005 and 2004.

Right now, Ernesto is drenching South Florida, but with only 45 mph winds, not causing tremendous damage. He should be just a tropical depression by the time he comes back offshore. The GFDL is really enthusiastic about Ernesto's future, making him a hurricane again before his encounter with the Carolinas, but the NHC is more doubtful.

Right now the action is in the Pacific. Hurricane John is moving just parallel to the Mexican coast, and is just now getting large enough that he's barely starting to scrape the coastline with tropical storm force winds. Conditions look favorable for intensification, and John will probably be a Category 4 storm tomorrow. It should be noted that track that curves John to the west just south of Baja California is only one of two model solutions. The other track would take John northeastward and towards landfall at that point. John may be the relatively rare Pacific storm that makes landfall in North America.

Ioke is now once again an incredible Category 5 Super Typhoon. She's held this strength for 6 hours now, and is forecast to hold this strength for another 36 hours. Even after that, Ioke is still forecast to maintain Category 4 strength for a considerable time afterwards.

UPDATE: The NHC is about to declare that this blob west of Hurricane John is Tropical Depression 12-E. And they are predicting this will be Tropical Storm Kristy by tomorrow.