Caribbean Islands 2, Ernesto 0

Earlier I pessimistically reported that Ernesto was certain to cause a large loss of life with his unexpected arrival in Haiti. Fortunately, it appears Haiti got the better of that encounter. The mountainous terrain simply quickly ripped Ernesto to shreds. The death toll in Haiti is still officially two. It is too early to call this the final total, since rural areas will likely be slow in reporting, but it is evident that Ernesto didn't cause the same massive destruction in Haiti as Jeanne did two years ago.

Ernesto's encounter with Cuba was likewise unfavorable to Ernesto. When he finally emerges back over water tomorrow morning, he's likely to be no more than a minimal tropical storm. The further good news is that Ernesto should no longer have enough time over water to become a hurricane again. He should remain a fairly weak tropical storm as he tracks northwards across Florida. The last possibility that he has for any significant restrengthening would be as he comes offshore briefly between Florida and South Carolina. The Gulf Stream waters there should be warm enough to allow Ernesto to regain a little strength, but 70 mph is probably his upper bound. This is a classic case of why it is so hard to accurately predict the intensity of storms. A relatively small difference in Ernesto's track over the weekend took Ernesto mostly over the islands rather than over the nearby super-hot Caribbean and Gulf waters. That makes the difference between 40 mph and 140 mph sustained winds.

So far the 2006 hurricane season is looking pretty gentle compared to 2005, but we still have over half the season to go, and it is no time to relax the guard.