Quieter tropics this year? Don't bet yet...

The laws of logic and probability would seem to indicate that we'll see fewer storms in the Atlantic this year than in 2005's record breaking season. The forecast by Dr. Bill Gray reflects this. However, so far we are pretty much right on pace with 2005. By this time last year, we were just seeing the end of Tropical Storm Arlene which had formed in the western Caribbean before passing through the Yucatan Channel, and becoming a 70 mph storm before hitting the Gulf Coast. Sound familiar? There was then a very June-like two-week break until Tropical Storm Bret. From there, there wasn't another quiet week, let alone two, until the gap between Hurricane Beta and Tropical Storm Gamma in November. This year, though, Dr. Jeff Masters notes we're already looking more like late July in a typical Hurricane year. Although we won't get a storm over this weekend, 5-10 days out, we may be seeing Beryl and Chris before the month is out.