Tuesday, July 11, 2006

First North American Hurricane of 2006

OK, so I go away for a while, and the Eastern Pacific heats up quickly. Tropical Depression 3-E formed last night and quickly became Tropical Storm Bud, then at 3:30 PM Pacific, Hurricane Bud. As of 8 PM Pacific, Hurricane Bud now has 90 mph winds, and it should continue to build to a Category 3 storm by tomorrow. Eastern Pacific hurricanes are mostly just fun to watch, because they rarely affect land and cause the havoc and destruction of the Atlantic variety. Bud is no exception, and he should have a short life as an intense storm over open water as he slowly drifts westward.

And right on Bud's heels, we have Tropical Depression 4-E. This should be Tropical Storm Carlotta by morning, and Hurricane Carlotta by Thursday. Right now Carlotta looks to be taking a slightly more northwesterly path than Bud, which would take it up the Mexican coast. Again, 4-E/Carlotta would be unlikely to reach land, but should scrape close enough to the coast to bring 2-4 inches of rain. And like Bud, it's likely to lose intensity pretty quickly once it leaves the relatively narrow band of warm tropical waters and enters the cooler currents off of Baja California.

As for the Atlantic, it's been pretty quiet, if only to remind us what a normal July is like. Remember, in 2004, which was considered an unusually active and destructive year, we didn't have even a tropical storm until August. But by this time last year, we had had Tropical Storms Arlene and Bret, and Hurricanes Cindy and Dennis. Emily was only a few hours away. There's no other word to describe last year's pattern but completely off-the-charts insane. This year, we seem to be back to a regular hyperactive season.

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